Chosen One

Chosen One
Chosen One

Why Kerala Chosen as One of the Must See Travel Destination in the World

                                     Kerala popularly known as God’s Own country and state chosen as one of the 50 must see destinations of a lifetime by National Geographic Traveler.

                                      Kerala is a land of great natural beauty and awe inspiring scenic backgrounds. It is believed to be a gift of the Arabian Sea. With its long coastline, scenic backwaters, exotic beaches, verdant hill stations, wonderful waterfalls, lovely lakes, exotic wildlife sanctuaries, tea & coffee estates, rubber & spice plantations, rich flora & fauna, historical monuments, terrific temples, rich culture & tradition, traditional villages, modern towns and friendly people make this state is lovingly known as the “God’s Own Country”.  Kerala has been the gateway for many cultures and religions into the subcontinent of India. Kerala has a multifaceted and colorful history, resulting in a rich cultural heritage and awe-inspiring monuments and places of worship. These monuments and places of worship are spread all over Kerala and represent the history of Kerala through their varied architectural wonders. With its long coastline, beautiful tranquil beaches, emerald backwaters, luxuriant hill stations, waterfalls plantations, striking flora, fauna and its striking history makes Kerala truly seems to be gods own special country.

                                     Kerala is one of the most visited tourist destinations in India.  It is one of the most beautiful states of India having excellent and admirable tourism infrastructure and a range of tourism options that makes the state India’s one of the most popular tourist destination.

                                        Kerala is also famous among honeymooners or newly-wedded couples from all over the world. Celebrating honeymoon in Kerala seems to be celebrating honeymoon in paradise. It is rightly said that Kerala is Honeymooners’ Paradise. The beautiful landscapes and favorable geography of Kerala make it a prime a honeymoon destination and provides romantic ambiance for honeymooners or newly-wedded couples. They are several options to enjoy Kerala honeymoon in more and more memorable ways. Backwaters, houseboats, hill stations, rich flora & fauna, cultural heritage, exotic beaches, etc make it a perfect romantic honeymoon destination.

                                      Tourists also come here to rejuvenate themselves at Ayurvedic Treatment & Spa Center. In fact, the entire state is a perfect tourist destination and in each part of the state one can something new and some thing extra. But Kerala is more than sightseeing destination; it is also a destination for spiritual and intellectual adventure.

                                       Kerala can only be described as being one of the most rejuvenating, enchanting and unforgettable experiences, so only way to truly appreciate what she has to offer is to pay her a visit…

About the Author

To know more about Kerala tourism, Kerala tour packages, Kerala honeymoon holidays, Kerala backwaters, Kerala beaches, Kerala hill stations, Kerala Ayurveda Treatment and Kerala cultural heritage visit Kerala Leisure Tours

what is the probability that the fair coin was the one chosen?

An arcade booth at a county fair has a person pick a coin from two possible coins available and then toss it. If the coin chosen lands on heads, the person gets a prize. One coin is a fair coin and one coin is a biased coin (unfair) with only a 41% chance of getting a head. Assuming equally likely probability of picking either coin, what is the probability that the fair coin was the one chosen, given that you got a head?

can someone explain how to solve this?
pls.

Dear Eva,

We’re told that each coin is equally likely to be picked, so

P(fair coin) = 0.50 and P(unfair coin) = 0.50 .

We’re also told the respective probabilities of the coin landing on heads, given that the coin is fair or unfair, so

P(heads | fair coin) = 0.50 (from the meaning of “fair”) and
P(heads | unfair coin) = 0.41 .

By combining what we know above, we can determine the probability of heads:

P(heads)
= P(fair coin & heads) + P(unfair coin & heads)
= P(fair coin) P(heads | fair coin) + P(unfair coin) P(heads | unfair coin)
= (0.50) (0.50) + (0.50) (0.41)
= 0.25 +0.205
= 0.455 .

That is, our chance of getting a head is 45.5%, which shouldn’t be surprising since it is halfway between 41% and 50%, and we’re equally likely to use a fair coin or a biased coin.

We can now use the formula for conditional probability to write the following in order to find the probability that the fair coin was the one chosen, given that you got a head.

P(fair coin | heads)
= P(fair coin & heads) / P(heads)
= [P(fair coin) P(heads | fair coin)] / P(heads)
= [(0.50) (0.50)] / 0.455
= 0.25 / 0.455
= 50 / 91
= 0.54945 (to five decimal places).

Dream Evil – The Chosen Ones


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